The global transition to low-carbon growth will intensify over the next decade. Four scenarios are constructed modelling the growth potential for the low-carbon energy market, comprising revenues for power, heat and fuels related to energy efficiency in buildings, transport and industry. HSBC’s Conviction scenario produces a 2009-20e compound annual growth rate of c11% with the market nearly tripling to US$2.2trn per annum. Three major shifts are forecast: energy efficiency themes surpass low-carbon power as the major investment opportunity; China’s low-carbon market will overtake the US; and the amount of upfront capital required will triple to US$1.5trn per year in 2020.